The War in Iran Explained: What It Means for You
- Ben Landricombe
- Apr 1
- 5 min read
This edition of The Informed Generation will look to unpack the war in Iran and look at what the implications of the conflict might look like for you.
To understand what has provoked a conflict in Iran we need to first look into the Iranian political system and the eruption of protest in early January.
Following the 1979 Iranian revolution an Islamic republic was established, a regime that will rule over Iran for the following 47 years. Most recently, the republic was led by Ayatollah Khomeini, a strict right wing conservative that had stood as leader since 1989.
Iran sits on the 3rd largest reserve of crude oil in the world yet over 30% of its population is considered to be living in absolute poverty. Iran has failed to modernise and differentiate its revenue streams in a similar fashion to its middle eastern counterparts (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar etc.) leading to Iran’s GDP per capita sitting at 91% lower than the Middle Eastern average.
Protests in Iran
This lack of a stable and growing economy, along with years of religious and political repression, culminated in an eruption of protests in late 2025.
In response, an unprecedented military reaction that saw the deaths of thousands of Iranian citizens. Amnesty International reported that “January 2026 marks the deadliest period of repression by the Iranian authorities in decades” allowing you to visualise the scale of political backlash.
The continued attacks from Iranian Armed Forces resulted in widespread condemnation, none more so from the US President Donald Trump. During a stream of posts on Truth Social, Trump asks that "Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!... HELP IS ON ITS WAY," without specifying what this help might be.
In later posts Trump warns Iran of potential consequences of prolonged conflict within the country and references Iran's supposed production of nuclear weapons.
Just before the strikes in late February Trump doubled down on his previous statements, elaborating on Iran's nuclear ambitions and outlining a danger to the US - “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people”.
This ultimately led to US - Israeli led strikes in the morning of February 28th, including strikes on the Iranian capital Tehran that killed Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei.
The motives of these attacks remain relatively unclear with varying US cabinet members presenting differing reasoning. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined that the strikes were a precautionary measure due to fears that Iran would retaliate in response to planned Israeli action against Tehran. President Trump later contradicts his secretary stating that he believed Iran would have struck the United States first and so joining the Israeli strikes was a preemptive protocol.
US “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth in a press conference in early March dramatically bragged that “This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.”. While the whole world questions the motives for war, it's clear that the United States has a priority of decimation and destruction of Iranian infrastructure and military production.
What is Happening in the Gulf states now?
The impact of this war is not limited to Iranian territory. Iran has retaliated against its Gulf counterparts, with forces targeting US military bases, energy infrastructure and some civilian areas in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE.
At the start of March a new front of the war opened up in Lebanon where Iran backed militia group Hezbollah launched strikes at Israeli military. This escalation of retaliation has resulted in Israeli strikes within Lebanon, with the BBC reporting that 1,247 Lebanese civilians had been killed, including 124 children, by the 30th of March.
More than one million people, 1 in 6, have been displaced according to government officials within Lebanon with Israel trying to take back control of key military locations. Israel's defence minister outlined that Israeli troops will “advance and seize additional strategic areas in Lebanon”
The Strait of Hormuz
These Iranian strikes throughout the Gulf nations have been accompanied with an Iranian closure to the strait of Hormuz. The strait is a key trade passage with over 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas (NG) leaving the Arab states and being used globally. The Middle East is also one of the largest exporters of natural fertilisers (30% of global trade passes through the strait of Hormuz). A complete stop to fertiliser trade puts pressure on an already suffering global aggriculture market, a cost that will be passed onto consumers.
Iran has reportedly utilised sea mines in the strait to prevent ships passing through with Iranian forces also engaging in missile launches aimed at Israeli oil tankers off the coast of Qatar.
This has massively impacted the oil and gas exporters with some estimates placing the economic impact as billions of dollars in lost revenue per day.
The closure of the strait will also have major ramifications for global prices. Oil and natural gas is the foundation of global infrastructure with over 50% of worldwide energy being powered via fossil fuels.
The Times has reported that the upward pressure on the price of energy has resulted in increases to inflation rates in 21 Eurozone countries.
The Effect on the UK
In the UK we can expect to see general price rises. Energy prices will rise in June after the OFGEM cap on prices for energy companies expires. Increased costs for firms will be passed onto consumers in the coming months.
During the 2022 Russia/Ukraine energy crisis CPI inflation rose to 11% and we saw a 54% increase in energy prices. Some economic analysts predict that the results of the US/Israeli invasion will be more severe than that seen in 2022 and are warning government officials of the potential economic impacts.
We are still waiting for the Office of National Statistics to release the inflation data for March, however Rachael Reeves has already announced financial aid for those affected by increasing oil and gas prices.
A 50 Million pound pot has been allocated for low income households who use heating oil to try and reduce the financial burden. Kier Starmer has reassured UK citizens that the government is assessing the situation in Iran and are ready to go ahead with contingency plans if required.
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